Hillary Clinton has a 68.5 percent chance of winning Colorado’s nine electoral votes, according to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of polling results, which puts Trump’s chances of victory in the Centennial State at 31.5 percent.

To arrive at those numbers, FiveThirtyEight — whose editor Nate Silver admitted “emphatically” that he underestimated Trump in the primaries — collected polls from Quinnipiac University, Keating Research Inc. and YouGov, then weighted each “by its sample size, how recently it was conducted, and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm” and adjusted for a handful of factors that take demographic data into account.

It involved a bit of math. Follow the link above to see it laid out.

The results paint a different picture than that Washington Post and ABC News poll we wrote about Sunday, which found Clinton ahead by just one percentage point.